I would rather define the “secularists” in question here as “ultra-secularists,” since their position towards religion in public life is not neutral but antagonistic. Besides them, there are many secular liberals who don't see any problem in Mr. Erdoğan's presidency, the headscarf of his wife, or the free practice of religion in society — as far as the laws of the state are not based on any religious belief. But for the ultra-secularists, not only the state but also the society needs to be secularized. A First Family with a visible Muslim identity, for them, is the ultimate intimidation and heresy.

The Ankara-Based Patronage and Its Discontents

But where this ultra-secularism comes from? Since politics, and especially the Turkish one, is a world of euphemisms, one needs to discover the true roots of its phenomena and actors.

For long, many Turkish intellectuals have argued that those roots go back to the French Enlightenment and the naïve modernist theories of the 19th century, such as positivism, which had defined science as a new religion that would replace the traditional ones. I think that explanation is still valid, but one can find alternative or supplementary ones as well. In a remarkable piece titled “The Economic Roots of the Secular–Antisecular Conflict,”published in the daily Zaman (the Turkish-language one) last week, Prof. Eser Karakaş offered one such interesting analysis.

The key to Prof. Karakaş's piece was a simple question. “Could it be an accident,” he asked, “that there are simply no radical secularists who argue for a free-market based economy?” (In case you haven't noticed, virtually all ultra-secularists, who also call themselves “Kemalists,” are die-hard opponents of foreign direct investment to Turkey, which they see as “imperialism”, and they loathe capitalism in general.) According to Prof. Karakaş, this is not an accident and the reason is the patronage-based, state-run economy that Turkey's ultra-secularist elite created in the 20's and 30's and have dominated since then. They simply wish to preserve the Turkey of the 30's — which was statist, anti-liberal, and fiercely secular — that has served, to borrow a Marxist term, their “class interests.”

According Prof. Karakaş, this economic structure also explains the rise of Turkey's religious and conservative circles as entrepreneurs who have aimed at integrating into the global economy. “This segment of society that has been excluded from the benefits of the Ankara-based patronage system,” he argues, “had to turn its face to foreign markets and focused on production and exports.”

All this very well explains why Turkey's ultra-secularists abhor the country's EU bid, while most religious and conservative circles support it.

Through Markets and Ideas, not Bombs and Warplanes

According to Prof. Karakaş this trend is likely to continue and, moreover, transform the conservatives into more dedicated liberals and internationalists. “As long as the secularist cadres insist on preserving a closed economy,” he foresees, “the secular-antisecular debate in our country will continue on a globalization axis, and will both empower the traditional circles and move them closer to secular values.”

In other words, the ultra-secularists will (unintentionally, of course) help Turkey's Muslims to be more and more integrated with the world and further embrace liberal values.

And that's what I call good news… Doesn't the world need interpretations and practices of Islam which are peaceful, liberal and modern? That obviously doesn't come about by occupying Islamic lands or supporting their secular dictatorships. Western bombs and warplanes clearly don't help winning Eastern hearts and minds. But the soft powers of the West — its markets, incentives, and ideas — can help more Muslims become convinced that the clash of civilizations is a very bad and unnecessary idea.

The modernization and liberalization of Turkish Islam shows how those soft powers have been helpful; and how they could offer a model for other Muslim nations.

But of course we should not forget the huge contribution of Turkey's ultra-secularists in this interesting transformation. Alas, their authoritarian secularism and zealous “anti-imperialism” have resulted in a great contribution to history — albeit in a way that they could never imagine, and still fail to understand.